Manchester United expects 12.3 goals and 7 actual goals, a difference of 5.3 Premier League worst

 4:18pm, 2 October 2025

According to The Athletic statistics, Manchester United has expected 12.3 goals and 7 actual goals, which is the team with the largest difference between the actual goals and expected goals in the Premier League.

TA reported that Manchester United averaged 2.05 goals per game this season, partly due to the joining of Mbermo and Cunha, but the number of shots (15.3 games per game, the highest in the league) is also a factor. A large portion of Manchester United's shots come from outside the penalty area, which means they increase the cumulative expected goals, but are usually of low quality.

Mbermo (20 goals, 12.3 expected goals) and Cunya (15 goals, 8.7 expected goals) ranked among the top three players who actually scored more goals than expected in the Premier League last season, but they only scored one goal this season, with an expected number of goals of 2.8. Coupled with the two losses from B Fee, Manchester United's current situation seems to be due to lack of confidence in the offensive third zone. Luck is also a factor, with Manchester United hitting the goal frame four times, more than any other team.

In the list of expected goals and actual goals this season, Tottenham Hotspurs performed the best, with their actual goals scored 4.1 more than expected goals, and Liverpool (2.9), Arsenal (2.6), and Manchester City (2.6) ranked second to fourth.